Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste faces high vulnerability with a risk score of 65/100, primarily due to its 80% dependency on imported refined products despite being an oil producer with declining output. The country's gasoline reserves are critically low at 22 days, contributing to a high price of $1.28/L, and a high food risk is exacerbated by a significant 62% increase in fertilizer costs. While not directly exposed to the Strait of Hormuz, the global supply disruption and high crude prices translate directly into higher import costs for refined fuels and agricultural inputs. Without substantial intervention or alternative supply arrangements, Timor-Leste's economic and food security challenges are expected to intensify in the coming weeks.