Ethiopia

Ethiopia is in a critical state, highly vulnerable due to 100% oil import dependency and severe foreign exchange shortages limiting its ability to purchase fuel at current Brent crude prices of ~$103.08/bbl. This has led to acute fuel shortages, with gasoline at $1.18/L and a dangerously low 18 days of reserves, further compounding a critical food risk situation exacerbated by a +82% fertilizer price increase. Despite low Hormuz exposure, the global supply deficit of ~17 mb/d means prices remain prohibitive for the cash-strapped nation. The outlook for Ethiopia is dire, with continued severe fuel and food insecurity expected to worsen in the coming weeks without significant external intervention.