Zambia

Zambia faces a high-risk scenario due to its 100% oil import dependency and landlocked status, making it highly vulnerable to global price surges and supply disruptions. The current Brent crude price of $111.66/bbl is severely impacting the economy, driving gasoline prices to $1.35/L and depleting fuel reserves to a critical 18 days. The moderate food risk is compounded by a significant 68% increase in fertilizer costs, threatening agricultural output and exacerbating inflationary pressures. Without significant international support or alternative supply arrangements, Zambia's economic strain and fuel scarcity are expected to worsen in the coming weeks.