Tunisia

Tunisia faces extreme vulnerability, compounded by an existing severe economic crisis, with 85% oil import dependency and only 22 days of gasoline reserves at $1.28/L. The country's moderate Hormuz exposure and the global supply crunch exacerbate its fuel challenges, making unsustainable fuel subsidies a critical issue. Moderate food risk is evident with a 68% increase in fertilizer costs, further straining household budgets. With stalled IMF talks and limited fiscal space, the outlook for Tunisia is dire, anticipating continued fuel shortages, rising inflation, and potential social unrest in the coming weeks.