Nigeria

Nigeria, despite being an oil producer, faces significant vulnerability due to its lack of refining capacity, forcing expensive fuel imports that are now exacerbated by $108.83/bbl Brent crude. Gasoline prices are at $0.72/L, and with only 28 days of reserves, the nation is exposed to supply shocks, though its Hormuz exposure is low. The government's subsidy burden is likely increasing, straining public finances. The outlook suggests continued pressure on fuel prices and availability, potentially leading to social unrest if supply issues persist.