Guatemala

Guatemala is at high risk due to its significant 90% oil import dependency, making it highly vulnerable to the elevated Brent crude prices, despite having no Hormuz exposure. Gasoline prices are $1.22/L, and critically, the country holds only 28 days of oil reserves, signaling a precarious supply situation. The 58% increase in fertilizer costs contributes to a moderate food risk, exacerbating economic pressures on the population. While remittances provide some economic buffer, the outlook points to sustained economic strain and potential supply challenges in the coming weeks without substantial mitigating actions.