Gambia

The Gambia is in a critical energy security situation, importing all its oil with only 12 days of gasoline reserves, making it highly vulnerable to global supply shocks. Gasoline prices have reached $1.22/L, placing immense pressure on its very small economy and the purchasing power of its citizens. While its Hormuz exposure is low, the global supply deficit of 17 mb/d and elevated Brent crude prices directly impact its import costs. With a moderate food risk and a 68% jump in fertilizer prices, the country faces a dual challenge of energy and food inflation. The outlook for the coming weeks remains precarious, with limited resilience against sustained high energy prices and potential for further economic deterioration.